Probability, not certainty

Every trade is a probability and none of them is a promise, which is why a lower quality setup produces a lower expected result.

Overconfidence is a wrong estimate. To see why it is wrong, look at what a trade actually is.

No trade has to work

Everything you have been taught describes something that happens more often than not. The sweep, the break of structure, the return into a block. None of them is a mechanism that must complete.

A perfect setup can fail. A poor one can pay. That is not the method breaking, it is what a probability is.

A trade is an outcome with odds attached, never a promise.

Lower quality, lower odds

If a trade is odds, then trade selection is odds management.

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