The narrow band

Confidence is not something you want more of. It is something you want the right amount of, and the right amount is a narrow range.

The edge above

Too much confidence shows up as three behaviours, and they are easy to name.

Size goes up, because the last trade worked. Trade count goes up, because waiting feels unnecessary. And entries get taken before the checks are finished, because you already know how this one ends.

Too confident looks like bigger, more often, and sooner.

The edge below

Too little confidence produces three behaviours of its own, and they cost just as much.